Max Greenaway
Max Greenaway
The world, 27 September 2026
75 governments, coloured by where they sit from left to right. Hover or tap a country for its opposition, graded out of five on resources, connections and inspiration to win, and what the betting markets say. Switch the map to Wars for where the fighting has been, by the latest count.
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Every country
La Libertad Avanza. Javier Milei, president since December 2023, strengthened by the October 2025 midterms.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The largest party organisation in the country, backed by most unions.
Christian Democratic Party. Rodrigo Paz, president since November 2025, ending almost 20 years of MAS rule.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Lost the 2025 runoff to Paz.
Barred from running and wanted on an arrest warrant. His old party MAS all but vanished from Congress in 2025.
Workers' Party. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, president since 2023, running for a fourth term.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Jair Bolsonaro, convicted and jailed, endorsed his son. Flávio is touched by the Banco Master scandal.
Next national vote. 4 October 2026, runoff on 25 October
Liberal Party. Mark Carney, prime minister since March 2025, re-elected in April 2025 with 169 of 343 seats.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Official Opposition with 144 seats. Poilievre lost his own seat in 2025 and came back through a by-election that August.
Fell to 7 seats in 2025. Lewis won the leadership in March 2026 with 56% on the first ballot.
22 seats. Runs only in Quebec, so it can shape a parliament but never lead one.
José Antonio Kast, president since 11 March 2026. He founded the Republican Party and left it just before taking office.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The left's joint ticket. Jara, a Communist, lost the runoff to the largest winning share since democracy returned.
Defenders of the Homeland. Abelardo de la Espriella, president since August 2026, won the June runoff 49.7% to 48.7%.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Gustavo Petro's movement. Lost the presidency by under one point, the narrowest margin in Colombian history.
Communist Party of Cuba, the only legal party. Miguel Díaz-Canel, first secretary and president.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
The best known dissident group. Ferrer was forced into exile in the United States in October 2025.
National Democratic Action. Daniel Noboa, president since 2023, re-elected in April 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Rafael Correa's party. Lost to Noboa twice, but voters rejected every question in his November 2025 referendum.
New Ideas. Nayib Bukele, president since 2019, now allowed to run again indefinitely.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
The old two-party system, right and left, down to a handful of seats between them.
Morena. Claudia Sheinbaum, president since October 2024, with two-thirds majorities in Congress alongside her allies.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The largest opposition party, still recovering from the 2024 rout.
Strong with young urban voters and in Jalisco and Nuevo León.
Ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century, now a minor force.
Popular Force. Keiko Fujimori, president since July 2026, won the June runoff at her fourth attempt.
Congress is back to two chambers and split among many parties.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Lost the runoff. Sánchez was a minister under Pedro Castillo, the leftist elected in 2021.
Republican Party. Donald Trump, president since January 2025, with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress.
Late September averages put Democrats about 8 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Leads going into the midterms on the president's low approval rather than on a leader of its own.
Next national vote. 3 November 2026, the House and a third of the Senate
United Socialist Party. Delcy Rodríguez, acting president since 5 January 2026, after US forces seized Nicolás Maduro on 3 January.
Rodríguez promised elections at the UN in September 2026 without a date. Reporting puts them at late 2027 at the earliest.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. She has been blocked seven times from flying home and is absent from the transition talks.
ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS. Christian Stocker, chancellor since March 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Won the 2024 election with 29% and was kept out of government. Leads the polls.
Out of government since 2025.
Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
Ran against Lukashenko in 2020 and says she won; the official count gave him 80%. Works from exile.
Progressive Bulgaria. Rumen Radev, prime minister, after quitting the presidency to found the party and winning an outright majority with 44.6% on 19 April 2026.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Lost half its support in April.
The liberal, pro-European bloc. The only established party to gain a seat in April.
Next national vote. 25 October 2026, presidential
ANO with SPD and the Motorists. Andrej Babiš, prime minister since December 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The alliance of ODS, KDU-ČSL and TOP 09 that governed until 2025.
Recovered some ground in 2025 under a new leader.
Social Democrats, Green Left, Moderates and Social Liberals, a minority. Mette Frederiksen's third government, since 3 June 2026.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Left government after the March election and ruled out another term with Frederiksen.
One of March's big gainers.
President Emmanuel Macron, with Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister since September 2025 at the head of a minority government.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Leads presidential polling above 30%. Le Pen lost her appeal in July 2026 and says she will run anyway.
The largest left-wing group in the National Assembly.
Next national vote. 18 April 2027, presidential. Macron cannot stand.
Georgian Dream. Irakli Kobakhidze, prime minister. Its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is widely seen as the most powerful figure.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
The United National Movement and its allies. Many of their leaders were jailed in 2025, and Georgian Dream has asked the Constitutional Court to ban all four main opposition parties. No ruling yet.
CDU/CSU and SPD. Friedrich Merz, chancellor since May 2025.
AfD 28%, CDU/CSU 20%, Greens 15%, SPD 13%, Left 11% (PolitPro trend, 27 September).
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
First in national polls. Every other party still refuses to govern with it.
Second among the opposition at about 15%.
Revived in 2025 and holding above 10%.
New Democracy. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister since 2019.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The official opposition, but far behind New Democracy.
The former prime minister's new party.
Tisza. Péter Magyar, prime minister after Tisza won 141 of 199 seats on 12 April 2026, ending 16 years of Viktor Orbán.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Orbán still leads the party. It keeps the media, money and business network it built in power.
A small party competing with Fidesz for right-wing voters.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Micheál Martin, Taoiseach since January 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The largest opposition party. The left's joint candidate, Catherine Connolly, won the presidency in October 2025.
Brothers of Italy leads a right-wing coalition. Giorgia Meloni, prime minister since October 2022.
Voters rejected her justice reform 53% to 47% in the March 2026 referendum.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Led the No campaign to its March win.
Needed by the Democrats for any majority, and wary of them.
D66, VVD and CDA, a minority cabinet. Rob Jetten, prime minister since 23 February 2026.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Won in 2023, brought down its own government in 2025, and lost first place to D66.
Outside a cabinet it once hoped to lead.
Labour. Jonas Gahr Støre, prime minister since 2021, re-elected in September 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Second place in 2025, its best result.
Erna Solberg's party, pushed to third in 2025.
Civic Coalition leads a broad coalition. Donald Tusk, prime minister since December 2023. President Karol Nawrocki, backed by PiS, vetoes much of its programme.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Holds the presidency through Nawrocki, and with it a veto.
Strongest among young voters.
Democratic Alliance, in minority. Luís Montenegro, prime minister since 2024.
António José Seguro, backed by the Socialists, won the presidency in February 2026, beating Chega's André Ventura 67% to 33%.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Second-largest party in parliament since May 2025.
Third in parliament, but its man now holds the presidency.
National Liberal Party. Ilie Bolojan, caretaker prime minister since parliament threw his government out on 5 May 2026. No new majority has formed.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The one party gaining from the crisis. It voted the government down with the Social Democrats.
Left the coalition in April 2026. It has the largest party organisation.
Vladimir Putin, president since 2000 apart from four years as prime minister, elected without a party. United Russia holds the Duma.
United Russia took over three quarters of the Duma in the 18 to 20 September 2026 election.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
Alexei Navalny died in an Arctic prison in February 2024. His organisation works from abroad.
Allowed in the Duma and loyal on the war. Disputed the September count in Voronezh.
Serbian Progressive Party. President Aleksandar Vučić holds the power and heads its list; Đuro Macut is prime minister.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
Grew from the protests after the Novi Sad station canopy fell and killed 16 people in November 2024. Endorsed by several opposition parties.
Next national vote. 25 October 2026, snap parliamentary
Smer–SD with Hlas and the Slovak National Party. Robert Fico, prime minister since 2023.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Ahead of Smer in the polls, 19% to 17% (PolitPro trend, 25 September).
The likely partner for any change of government.
Slovenian Democratic Party leads a right-wing coalition. Janez Janša, prime minister for a fourth time after the March 2026 election.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Won the most seats, by one, and still could not form a government.
PSOE and Sumar, in minority. Pedro Sánchez, prime minister since 2018.
Corruption probes around the Socialists hang over the last year of the term.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Largest party in parliament, but short of partners other than Vox.
Rising, and the price of any PP majority.
Next national vote. By 22 August 2027
Changing hands. The left bloc won 176 of 349 seats on 13 September 2026. Ulf Kristersson stays on as caretaker while Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats form a government.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Leaving office, but overtook the Sweden Democrats with 70 seats.
Fell to 17.5% and 62 seats, its first decline since 1988.
Justice and Development Party (AKP). Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president since 2014 and prime minister before that.
A court removed the CHP's elected leadership in May 2026 and put Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu back in charge.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
Founded in July 2026 by Özel and 90 MPs who left the court-run CHP. İmamoğlu, Istanbul's mayor, has been in prison since March 2025.
Keeps the name, the buildings and the state funding, but lost 90 of its MPs to the New Party.
Servant of the People. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president since 2019; Serhii Koretskyi, prime minister since July 2026.
No elections under martial law. Zelenskyy says a vote needs a ceasefire that has held for several months.
Opposition , Elections are paused.
Not a declared candidate, but the challenger polls keep coming back to.
The former president's party, the largest in opposition.
Labour. Andy Burnham, prime minister since 20 July 2026, after Keir Starmer lost his MPs' confidence and resigned.
Labour 26%, Reform 23%, Conservatives 20% (PollCheck average, 26 September).
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Led the polls through 2025 and into 2026. Now second since Burnham arrived.
Official Opposition, third in the polls.
Polling between 11% and 14%.
Next national vote. By 15 August 2029
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, president since 2014.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
Legal, with little representation. Ahmed Tantawy, who tried to run against Sisi in 2023, was later jailed.
Won in 2012. Banned since 2013.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since 8 March 2026, after US and Israeli strikes killed his father on 28 February. Masoud Pezeshkian is president.
At war with the United States and Israel since 28 February 2026. A June ceasefire collapsed within weeks.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
The former crown prince calls for a referendum on the system of government.
Street protests in early 2026 were put down by force. No opposition organisation operates openly inside the country.
The Shia Coordination Framework. Ali al-Zaidi, prime minister since 2026, the youngest in Iraq's history. Nizar Amidi is president.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Boycotted the November 2025 election. Can still fill the streets.
Likud leads a right-wing and religious coalition. Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister since December 2022.
Opposition bloc 54 seats, coalition 50, Arab parties 12 (Haaretz poll, 23 September).
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The former army chief's party. First on 23 seats to Likud's 20 in the latest Haaretz poll.
Bennett 2026 in alliance with Yesh Atid. Slipped to about 13 seats.
Next national vote. 27 October 2026
King Mohammed VI holds the main executive powers. Aziz Akhannouch stays head of government until the king names one from PAM, which won the most seats, 97 of 395, on 23 September 2026.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
The Islamists who led two governments. Back to 54 seats from 13.
King Salman bin Abdulaziz. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also prime minister, runs the country.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
No parties are allowed. Critics speak from exile.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, president of the transitional government since Bashar al-Assad fell in December 2024.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
No national opposition yet. The Kurdish-led SDF in the northeast and Druze leaders in Suwayda bargain for autonomy.
Kais Saied, president since 2019, ruling by decree since he suspended parliament in 2021.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
The Islamist party that won the first free election in 2011.
The secular party of the pre-2011 establishment. Its leader is also in prison.
Union for Democracy and Social Progress. Félix Tshisekedi, president since 2019.
M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda, hold much of the east.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
The former Katanga governor, second in 2023.
The former president, sentenced to death in absentia in September 2025.
Prosperity Party. Abiy Ahmed, prime minister since 2018. Won 438 seats in the June 2026 election.
Conflict kept many from voting. The whole Tigray region did not vote.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
Ran Ethiopia until 2018 and fought the 2020 to 2022 war. Stripped of its registration in 2025.
National Democratic Congress. John Mahama, president since January 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Governed from 2017 to 2025 and lost heavily in 2024 with Mahamudu Bawumia as its candidate.
United Democratic Alliance, with ODM inside a broad-based government. William Ruto, president since 2022.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Raila Odinga died in October 2025, leaving his ODM tied to Ruto. Gachagua, Ruto's impeached deputy, brings the Mount Kenya vote.
Next national vote. 10 August 2027
All Progressives Congress. Bola Tinubu, president since 2023.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The coalition vehicle for 2027. Lost Peter Obi in May 2026 amid internal fights.
Obi, third in 2023 with a big young following, joined forces with Kwankwaso in May 2026.
President Bassirou Diomaye Faye. He sacked his prime minister and mentor Ousmane Sonko on 22 May 2026 and launched his own party in July. Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo is prime minister.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The ruling party until the split. Holds the parliamentary majority, made Sonko speaker and refused to join the new cabinet.
The former president's party. An audit after he left found public debt his government had under-reported.
The ANC leads a government of national unity. Cyril Ramaphosa, president since 2018. The ANC lost its majority in 2024.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Official opposition with 58 seats, strongest in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's home province.
Fell from 44 seats to 39 in 2024.
Chama Cha Mapinduzi, in power since independence. Samia Suluhu Hassan, president since 2021.
The October 2025 election went ahead with the two main opposition parties barred. The protests that followed left hundreds dead, by some counts over a thousand.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
The main opposition party, kept off the 2025 ballot.
National Resistance Movement. Yoweri Museveni, president since 1986, declared winner in January 2026 with 72%.
Thousands of opposition supporters were locked up and the internet shut down around the vote. No full tally was published.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
The singer turned politician whose house was raided during the vote.
ZANU–PF. Emmerson Mnangagwa, president since 2017. His party wants his term extended to 2030.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
Chamisa quit the splintered Citizens Coalition for Change in 2024 and has not rebuilt a party.
Labor. Anthony Albanese, prime minister since 2022, re-elected in a landslide in May 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Topped Newspoll in late August 2026 on 30%, ahead of Labor on 29% and the Coalition on 19%.
Replaced Sussan Ley. Leads the Coalition with the Nationals, now behind One Nation in some polls.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Tarique Rahman, prime minister after the BNP won two-thirds of seats on 12 February 2026.
Sheikh Hasina's Awami League, winner of the four elections before, was banned from this one.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Second-largest party in parliament, leading an 11-party alliance.
The party of the students who brought Hasina down in 2024.
Communist Party of China. Xi Jinping, general secretary since 2012; Li Qiang, premier.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
Dissent is policed. Hong Kong's democrats were jailed under the 2020 security law.
The BJP leads the National Democratic Alliance. Narendra Modi, prime minister since 2014.
The BJP took West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress in May 2026 with 202 of 294 seats.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Won Kerala back in 2026. Still the only national rival to the BJP.
Third-largest party in the Lok Sabha, strong in Uttar Pradesh.
Gerindra leads a grand coalition. Prabowo Subianto, president since October 2024.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The largest party in parliament. It holds no cabinet posts.
Liberal Democratic Party with the Japan Innovation Party. Sanae Takaichi, prime minister since October 2025. The LDP won 316 of 465 seats in February 2026, two-thirds on its own.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The January 2026 merger of the Constitutional Democrats and Komeito. Fell from 167 seats to 49.
Tamaki's party, popular with younger voters.
Pakatan Harapan leads a unity government. Anwar Ibrahim, prime minister since 2022.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Its PAS wing is the largest single party in parliament.
Min Aung Hlaing, the 2021 coup leader, now president after a junta-run election from December 2025 to January 2026.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
Formed by lawmakers ousted in the coup. Allied armed groups hold much of the country. Aung San Suu Kyi is still detained.
Rastriya Swatantra Party. Balen Shah, prime minister at 36, after the RSP won 182 of 275 seats on 5 March 2026. Ram Chandra Paudel is president.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The oldest party. Lost heavily in the election that followed the 2025 youth protests.
Oli resigned as prime minister in the 2025 protests and lost his own seat to Shah.
National with ACT and New Zealand First. Christopher Luxon, prime minister since 2023.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The official opposition and the only party that can lead an alternative government.
Labour's natural partner.
Next national vote. 7 November 2026
Workers' Party of Korea. Kim Jong Un, leader since 2011.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
None is allowed to exist.
PML-N with the PPP. Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister since 2024. The army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is widely seen as the most powerful figure.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
Its candidates won the most seats in 2024 as independents after the party lost its symbol.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., president since 2022.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Her father Rodrigo has been held by the International Criminal Court since March 2025. She is the camp's likely 2028 candidate.
Came back into the Senate in May 2025.
Democratic Party. Lee Jae Myung, president since June 2025.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
Lost heavily in the June 2026 local elections but held Seoul.
National People's Power. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, president since 2024; Harini Amarasuriya, prime minister.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The official opposition, far behind the NPP's two-thirds majority.
Democratic Progressive Party. Lai Ching-te, president since May 2024; Cho Jung-tai, premier. The opposition controls the legislature.
Opposition , The opposition can win at the ballot box.
The largest party in the legislature, working with the TPP.
Its founder Ko Wen-je was charged with corruption in 2024.
Bhumjaithai, with Pheu Thai. Anutin Charnvirakul, re-elected prime minister on 19 March 2026 after winning 192 seats. King Vajiralongkorn is head of state.
Opposition , Elections are held on an uneven field.
120 seats in February 2026. The court dissolved its predecessor, Move Forward, after it won in 2023.
Communist Party of Vietnam. Tô Lâm, general secretary since 2024 and president as well.
Opposition , The opposition cannot take power by voting.
None is allowed to exist.
The colours. Each government by its ruling party's place on the left to right scale, red to the left and blue to the right, stronger towards the edges. Warm grey is rule that does not come from parties at all: clergy, a monarch, an army, one man. Hatching marks the countries where the opposition cannot win power by voting.
The grades. Resources is money, members, seats and organisation. Connections is allies, unions, business, church, diaspora and friends abroad. Inspiration is a leader and a cause that move people, and the belief they can win. They are MaxQaw's reading of seats, polls and alliances, not a measurement.
The facts. Each government line was written on 27 September 2026, with the polls named where they are quoted. Every card is compared live with Wikidata's office holders twice a day and says so when they disagree; nothing is rewritten automatically. Outlines are Natural Earth, public domain.
The wars. Live data only. Each country the source covers is coloured by the deaths from political violence in a month, as ACLED's researchers count them from local and international reporting and served by the UN's HDX HAPI. HAPI loads ACLED's weekly files some weeks late, so the map runs about a month behind the news, and every card says the date its count runs to. Nothing is added by hand to fill the gap. A country it does not cover is shown as not covered, never as at peace. Each card also carries the travel advice Canada and the United States publish for their own citizens, as their words, never as a colour on the map.
The markets. Odds are live prices on Polymarket and Kalshi, what traders pay for an outcome, on elections and on the wars. They are bets, not polls or forecasts, and move with money, not with voters. Refreshed every half hour.
The sources. ACLED through HDX HAPI, Wikidata (CC0), Polymarket, Kalshi, and one Perplexity search a week for the election watch. Every number carries its source and date where it appears.